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Thursday, August 11, 2011
Monday, August 08, 2011
Why companies won't hire
August 8, 2011 8:03 a.m. EDT
Unemployed men in Iowa line up for food during the Great Depression, circa 1935.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- David Frum: America's unemployment rate likely to remain high for years
- He says even a vigorous recovery from Great Depression left many jobless in the 1930s
- Companies are loath to hire, recalling the pain of the 2008-9 recession, he says
- Frum: Consumers are wary of spending; some key industries still very troubled
Editor's note: David Frum writes a weekly column for CNN.com. A special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002, he is the author of six books, including "Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again," and is the editor of FrumForum.
Washington (CNN) -- A week of bad economic news has led some economists to worry: Is it 1937 all over again?
But here's a second worry. Even if we avoid a repeat of 1937, we still have to worry about another 1936.
Here's the background to the worries:
As everyone knows, the global economy plunged into a great depression at the end of the 1920s. In the United States, the Great Depression hit bottom in early 1933. The years from 1933 through 1936 were years of economic recovery.
Then -- slam -- the U.S. economy hit the wall again. In 1937, the U.S. economy tumbled back into a depression almost as severe as in 1929-33.
David Frum
This past week of bad economic news raises fears that history might repeat itself, with a second slide into recession after the terrible collapse of 2008-2009.
But here's my worry: Even if we avoid a second recessionary dip, we're stuck on a very, very disappointing path. Call it the 1936 parallel.
From 1933 to 1936, the U.S. economy grew strongly, almost 10% a year. When supporters of President Franklin D. Roosevelt sang "Happy days are here again," they had reason to celebrate. By the end of 1936, U.S. output of goods and services had returned to 1929 levels. Corporate profits were surging. $100 invested in the stock market at the end of January 1933 would have multiplied to almost $350 in January 1937.
Yet even before that second slump, one economic indicator remained ghastly: unemployment. Even as output boomed, markets soared and profits bulged, an estimated 17% of Americans remained out of work.
Even if we avoid a second recessionary dip, we're stuck on a very, very disappointing path.
--David Frum
--David Frum
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Today likewise, things have returned more or less to normal for the affluent -- without taking much of a bite out of the unemployment numbers.
In fact, on our current trajectory, the U.S. will catch up to 2007 levels of economic output sometime in the next couple of months. Yet at the current job creation rate of a little north of 100,000 jobs per month, the U.S. economy will not recover its 2008-2009 job losses until the middle of the decade. And because so many distressed workers have quit the labor force altogether, the pace of job creation would have to double for the U.S. to see total employment rates return to pre-crisis levels before 2015.
What's the problem? Consider just these factors:
1. This past recession delivered its hardest blow to some especially labor-intensive industries: construction and retailing. Even as economic activity recovers, we're not going to see lots of new home building. Nor will we see people using their cash-out refinancings to go shopping at Best Buy. Americans are saving again. Those who have jobs are paying down debt.
2. Recessions lead to consolidations. Weak firms go broke, strong firms gain market share. The strong firms hire, the weak firms fire. But because the strong firms are more productive (that's why they are strong!), they do not hire nearly as many people as the weak firms have laid off.
3. A catastrophic experience like the 2008-2009 recession changes an employer's expectations about the future.Caution and self-protection become the guiding rules of business management. Companies decide it's safer to have one worker too few than one too many. They may not recover their exuberance and optimism for years.
4. Last and most important: The economy, although growing, is not growing very fast. The rule of thumb is to reduce unemployment by 1 point, the economy must grow 2 points over trend. Right now, the U.S. economy is still growing below trend. The engine is just not revving fast enough to move the car.
Then there's public policy. Employers must fear that the future probably holds heavier taxes, more regulation and higher employee health care costs. The outlook might be worse under a President Obama than a President Romney, but it looks sufficiently ugly either way.
As I said: That's the optimistic scenario, the 1936 scenario.
Don't get me started on the other.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of David Frum.
10 Do's and Don'ts for Better Runs
Don’t Run Heel First
Avoid striking the pavement with your heels—save that for your power walks. "When you walk, you keep one foot in contact with the ground, while running has a moment of weightlessness in the stride," says Alex Figueroa, a running coach and creator of Priority1 Wellness in Miami Beach. Running with a heel landing can contribute to back and knee pain.
Do Land on the Midsole of Your Foot
Landing on your forefoot (instead of your heels) allows your muscles to catch the weight of your body in flight, reducing the effects of impact on the joints and bones, says Figueroa.
Don't Use a Long Stride
Leaping forward while you run is inefficient and an energy drain. Instead, stand tall and lean forward, and when you feel like you are going to fall, step forward just enough to catch yourself. This should be the length of your stride. It takes less energy to fall than to reach your foot in front of you.
Do Take Short Effective Strides
Less motion through the joint means less wear and tear and improved efficiency during your runs, says Figueroa. Using a shorter stride reduces the movement within any joint (for running, this means the joints of the ankles, knees, and hips), and less movement means a longer, healthier life for these joints.
Don't Wear Shoes That Are Too Comfortable
The human body works with one major premise: use it or lose it. If your support is coming from an external source, like your shoes, then the muscles designed to support the framework of the foot (i.e. the arches), will eventually fail to do their job, making the foot weaker and your body more prone to injury.
Do Invest in Barefoot Running Shoes
“When it comes to support, less is more," says Figueroa. Build up to wearing shoes with minimal support, like NIKE Free or Vibram Five Fingers, to help strengthen and develop the natural muscular support in your foot and ankle. But don’t toss your sneakers just yet – slowly begin by running, one block at a time, with less support to gradually strengthen the muscles in your feet. Developing foot strength can help make everything stronger, including your ankles, knees, hips, and lower back, says Figueroa.
Don't Run as Hard As You Can
Many runners think if they can run fast, they are running efficiently, which isn’t the case. In fact, Figueroa recommends runners slow down to learn how to run farther, faster. “Slow down and wear a heart rate monitor to train smarter, not harder," suggests Figueroa. Set your heart rate monitor to keep your running at a desired pace, and then don’t exceed that set pace. Your body will adapt, and then you’ll be able to run more comfortably at this pace, meaning you will be able to run faster without pushing any harder.
Do Work Up to Running Farther, Faster
Build your run one block, or one minute at a time, says Figueroa. Walk between running intervals and recover actively. You can work on speed or form and technique during your “work intervals" and then recover with an easy jog or power walk in between. Interval training can provide you with faster results in the same amount of time.
Don't Get Stuck on the Odometer
Running three, five or even 26 miles doesn't really tell you if there is any progress in your run, says Figueroa. Instead, track the amount of time that you're running and monitor your intensity using a heart rate monitor.
Do Run for Time
Try to improve covering the same distance in less time. For example, set your workout to run for 30 minutes and see how much distance you can cover instead of running for four miles harder than you can safely run, suggests Figueroa. The more you train, the easier your runs will become. You can either cover the same distance with greater ease, or maintain the same intensity and run farther in the same amount of time.
Sign up for your next race.
Mike Chojnacki · Northern Illinois University
"Barefoot" running shoes are all the rage right now, but it's just really good marketing. Older runners, heavier runners, and runners prone to injuries need to be careful when it comes to these shoes. "Don't run as hard as you can", really that doesn't make much sense either? Of course you are not always running intervals at race pace but at certain points you need to run hard. Running hard teaches your body how to run more efficent and will increase your MaxVO2, it will also get you use to running under race conditions. Running hard will also allow you to understand how to best control your pain, under difficult conditions.12 · Like · Reply · Subscribe · Friday at 6:20pm
Kerry Carlson
Mike barefoot running shoes have to be gradually introduced since they muscles and ligaments have been oversupported in traditional running shoes. I used to have issues when wearing traditional shoes that I no longer have with Vibrams and I am running longer races and I am not young.
Anna Cardoza · Office Manager at Athearn marine agency, inc
I tried running in several different kinds of sneakers and the best sneakers that I have found are the Nike Free as this article recommends. Once you try them you will be a true believer.2 · Like · Reply · Subscribe · 8 minutes ago
Scott Spencer
I have to disagree that barefoot is just good marketing. I have attempted to run in sneakers for years but would always end up with shin splints and knee pain after very short runs. With Vibrams I am getting ready for my first ultra. As far as articles related to shorter strides....it seems just about every article I come across preaches about shorter strides.1 · Like · Reply · Subscribe · 18 hours ago
Mark Sackett
I've been running in the Nike Free for almost a year now and never felt better. They help keep the stride shorter, no injuries and I've never felt stronger with my stride. I'm 64 years old and run 1 - 2 marathons a year and I'll not likely ever switch back to stability or heavily cushioned shoes - way too clunky.Like · Reply · Subscribe · 10 hours ago
Jordan Moser · University of Washington
I agree with much of this article but was wondering where you found the information to support the shorter running stride. While I agree that it can be more efficient and result in less compressive force on the joints I have never heard of reducing the range you take your joints through as being anything but harmful. Along the same "use it or lose it" theory there have been studies finding that limited motion in a joint results in degeneration of the articular cartilage. While I agree with much of this article I hope anyone reading it is taking this as a stepping off point it has some wonderful guiding principals but is very general.Like · Reply · Subscribe · Friday at 3:06pm
Karla Bell · Specialty Services working Legal Accounts at University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics
When I 1st purchased the vibram five fingers I was still running heel 1st; big mistake. After learning the Forefoot strike I have not had any problems. I am 45. Now I find it difficult to run in regular cuchioned running shoes. I wish I would have had this running advise in the 80's.Like · Reply · Subscribe · Saturday at 5:57pm
Ruben Munoz · Los Angeles, California
Olivia Munoz, this article backs up what you've been telling me and is counter culture to what I was taught growing up.Like · Reply · Subscribe · Friday at 11:53am
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